Dollar vs Bitcoin
A recent bet by Balaji on the dollar going into hyperinflation is a classic example of binary thinking. In fact, lots of Balaji’s thinking is binary, Bitcoin will take over the dollar and will become the currency. But I think we underestimate how much people would still prefer the matrix over the real world. Even though on paper, bitcoin is better than the dollar in every respect, on the other hand, it’s very harsh, you either have it or not, and you can’t print trillions out and save a Bank (SVB is the most recent example). The financial system would be much more harsh and rigid. I don’t think people are ready for that kind of system.
Future as a range
Let’s play a simple thought experiment, what are the possible near-term possibilities with the dollar vs bitcoin battle? On one extreme it will be all dollar and no bitcoin, on the other extreme is all bitcoin and no dollar. But both extremes are very unlikely to happen in the next 20 years, what is very likely to happen is a range between, 90% of the dollar and 10% of bitcoin, or 50% of the dollar and 50% of bitcoin, and all the ranges in between. Even today, after so much tech, we still have paper magazines printing and selling, paper vs digital range changed quite a bit now, but there is still a place for paper.
Things are never binary
Every time someone says something along the lines of “it will be 100% like this” replace 100% with multiple different ranges to get a more accurate possibility.